Angus Whyte – Associate Editor

            Since 2021, Trudeau’s Liberal government has held a minority position in the House of Commons, supported by a confidence and supply agreement with the NDP. The agreement, which was struck in 2022 and scheduled to run until 2025, was cut short by NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in a public announcement last month. But what is a confidence and supply agreement? How might this affect the political landscape as we head towards a looming federal election?

            In Canadian politics, minority governments have a harder time passing legislation compared to majority governments, because they depend on votes outside of their party to produce majority approval for a proposed bill. As a result, bills proposed by a minority government often cater to the interests of oppositional parties or risk being shot down in the House. This is where confidence and supply agreements enter: simply put, these agreements form a coalition between the minority government and a major third party with the intention of teaming up against the official opposition.

      Graphic courtesy of Payton Langevin

      In the case of the Liberal-NDP coalition, the Liberals (holding 160 seats) recruited the NDP (holding 24 seats) to surpass the 170 seats needed for a majority. This relationship was mutually beneficial: the Liberals ensured the continuity of their government; the NDP advanced their agenda by influencing the Liberal mandate. However, recent disagreement between the Liberal and NDP parties concerning corporate interest has resulted in the termination of the confidence and supply agreement. Without the support of the NDP, the Liberals may lack the votes to survive a vote of non-confidence, ushering in a federal election sooner than anticipated. With Conservatives leading by 20 per cent in projected polls in a recent publication, a federal election would almost certainly lead to a Conservative government.

            The election cycle also impacts government spending. Towards the end of the election cycle, governments often choose to increase spending to buy support in the upcoming election. In and of themselves, shifts in government can also greatly alter the federal budget. As a public university, Bishop’s should take a keen interest in the upcoming election, and be aware of how the termination of the Liberal-NDP confidence and supply agreement may bring about an election sooner than expected.