The Jays will look to be the 2008 Rays

Even seasoned Jays fans will have a hard time recognizing all the players in this year’s lineup

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Last June, I was in attendance when the Toronto Jays knocked off the Chicago White Sox extending their first place lead over the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East; not much has gone right since then. Shortly after their hot start they faded down the stretch backing into 4th place in the division and a disappointing 75 win season. The sour end of the season, and the realization that the team wasn’t going to be able to compete with the division heavyweights, forced the team to take on a rebuilding approach for the future.

Longtime General Manager J.P Ricchardi is out, his much younger assistant Alex Anthopoulos is in. Anthopoulos came in with a task that rookie GMs generally don’t have to deal with: trade away the best pitcher in baseball. After shopping around Roy Halladay, the best deal came in the form of a 3-way trade with the NL champion Phillies and the Seattle Mariners. The trade brought back infielder Brett Wallace and pitcher Kyle Drabek who are both expected to be cornerstones of the franchise for years to come.

Starting Rotation:

Although the team is certainly not missing arms, no one is sure which ones will emerge as the key guys for manager Cito Gaston this year. It’s one thing to have a lot of something, but quite another to have quality, and quality is something the Jays may not have just yet. Their rotation could include any combination of three under 25 starters in Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Marc Rzepczynski (who just went on the DL as I was writing this article), a career bullpen pitcher in Brian Tallet, and three pitchers who are hoping to make successful returns from various forms of arm surgery in Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch. Out of the entire group the career leader for wins is Marcum with 24; in other words, these guys aren’t battle tested. On the way is phenom Kyle Drabek who many expect to be ready to join them later this year after being sent to AA New Hampshire for some bit of seasoning.

Bullpen:

Just like the starting rotation, the bullpen has no shortage of arms. Leading the pack is newly signed Kevin Gregg who is expected to take on the closing duties after closing games for the Cubs and Marlins over the past three seasons. Should Gregg not work out, the Jays can turn to Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, Jason Fraser, or newly converted starter David Purcey. If anyone from this group exceeds expectations, don’t be surprised to see Anthopoulous use any number of them as trade bait when a top flight team should need bullpen help.

Batting Order:

It’s comforting to know that break-out stars Adam Lind and Aaron Hill will be back in 2010, but the Jays will certainly need a bounce back season from overpaid Vernon Wells to make up for the losses of Marco Scutaro, Rod Barajas and Scott Rolen. As for 3B Edwin Encarnacion, it appears the time is now or never to prove if he can hit consistently at the major league level after being touted as one of baseball’s biggest prospects with the Reds in 2005. The loss of Scutaro left a hole at the leadoff spot which will now be filled by the inconsistent Jose Bautista. The Jays brass is desperately hoping that Travis Snider will live up to the hype of his big bat and join Hill and Lind in the middle of the lineup to give the team a feared 3-4-5 rotation.

How they’ll finish

Unfortunately, despite the possibly of a bright future, 2010 isn’t looking good for Jays. The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are looking very strong on paper, not to mention a young Orioles team who are ready to make their mark much like the Rays did a few years ago. I’m thinking 5th place in the east, and a mid-to-high 90’s loss season, and that’s assuming that Lind and Hill weren’t just flashes in the pan; otherwise, don’t be surprised if they finish with 100 losses. There’s always next year though, right?